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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still